While deaths from COVID 19 globally is still just 10 percent (5 million) of the deaths from Spanish flu or H1N1 influenza A (50 million) between February 1918 and April 1920 or 2 years and 2 months, still the advances in science and technology of modern times did not prevent SARS-COV2 which caused the virus (of 1 year 11 months) from being transmitted globally through travelers, exchanges of goods and services and even technology itself.
The modern man was so complacent in his daily life—to a point of abusing the ecological system he lived in (including the wildlife that thrived in it)—that all humanity in the planet we call Earth was taken aback and surprised no end at how fast, how dangerous and how virulent and vicious the virus was. It knew no relations, no identity—it struck rich and poor alike, well- known or unknown individuals and the healthcare system of the world was exposed for all their follies.
It was not until vaccines were developed that mankind was back in the streets, economies began bouncing back and life on Earth as we knew it began springing all over again. But during the days of vicious viral attacks, we cowered in fear, isolated ourselves from relatives, friends, officemates and loved ones that we only saw virtually (via the internet). And for a very good reason—self- preservation.
Death toll
A report by Agence France Presse said 5 million worldwide have died from COVID 19 since it first emerged in China nearly two years ago. Last Monday, nearly four months after 4 million deaths were registered, came even as mortality rates slow because of global vaccine rollouts that had seen billions of people injected.
The daily deaths worldwide fell below 8,000 for the first time in almost a year in early October, there remain blackspots globally.
As World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said last Thursday, “the total number of cases and deaths of Covid-19 is increasing for the first time in two months, due to the current increase in the epidemic in Europe."
Eastern Europe
In the 52 countries and territories that form the WHO's European region, the mounting death toll is mainly coming from the east. Russia — a country with strong vaccine hesitancy — has seen infections and deaths reach new records, with average daily fatalities exceed 1,000 since October 20. This toll is even underestimated. The government's daily toll shows a total of 239,693 deaths as of November 1.
However, national statistics agency Rosstat, which has a broader definition of Covid deaths, said at the end of September that the death toll was nearly 450,000.
After Russia, Ukraine and Romania are the two countries in Europe with the highest daily death toll — averaging 546 and 442 deaths per day, respectively, over the past seven days.
World’s deadliest
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is the world's deadliest regions (1,521,193 deaths since the start of the pandemic). But the number of daily deaths, currently around 840, has been declining since May.
In the United States, more than 1,400 deaths were recorded each day on average over the past seven days, 15 percent down on the previous week. With its total of 746,747 deaths, the country is bearing the brunt of the pandemic.
Two to three times more
The WHO estimates that the pandemic's real toll could be two to three times higher than official records, due to the excess mortality that is directly and indirectly linked to Covid-19.
The Economist magazine looked at excess mortality and concluded around 17 million have died from Covid. "This figure seems more credible to me," Pasteur Institute epidemiologist Professor Arnaud Fontanet told AFP.
Whatever the case, the death toll is lower than from other historical pandemics, such as Spanish flu that killed 50-100 million in 1918-1919.
Nonetheless, Covid has "caused a lot of deaths in a short period", said Jean-Claude Manuguerra, a virologist at the French institute.
"It could have been a lot more dramatic without all the measures taken, particularly restrictions on movement of people and then the vaccinations," according to Fontanet.
US rolls out vaccine for children
Reuters meantime reported that the United States is rolling out Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines for children aged 5 to 11 this week, but most of the 15 million shots being shipped initially are unlikely to be available before next week, the White House said on Monday.
Millions of doses specifically formulated for children of that age group will start arriving at distribution centers over the next few days, White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients said, and the federal government has purchased enough supply for all eligible 28 million children.
“We are ready to execute, pending CDC’s decision. And starting the week of November 8th, our vaccination program for kids ages 5 through 11 will be running at full strength,” Zients said at a briefing.
The US FDA on Friday authorized the Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE coronavirus vaccine for children aged 5 to 11 years, making it the first COVID-19 shot for young children in the United States.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention still needs to advise how the shot should be administered, which will be decided after a group of outside advisers discuss the plan on Tuesday. Following the CDC’s decision, parents will be able to visit vaccines.gov and filter locations offering the vaccine for the children, Zients said.
“The whole plan is based on Pfizer vaccines,” he said.
Moderna Inc said on Sunday it would delay filing its request for an emergency use authorization for a half-strength 50-microgram dose of the vaccine for children ages 6 to 11.
Shares in Moderna fell 2.3 percent, or $8.04, to $337.17 on Monday while Pfizer shares were off 10 cents at $43.64.
At the end of last week, the seven-day average number of coronavirus cases dropped 3 percent to around 69,000 daily cases, the average hospitalization rate fell 10 percent to around 5,100 cases, and the daily deaths average fell 10 percent to around 1,100, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said at the same briefing.
US Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said it was “very likely” everyone would be able to get a vaccine booster shot “within a reasonable amount of time.”
Currently the CDC recommendations for boosters cover specific categories of people.
Cheaper oral COVID-19 drugs to be available in the Phl.
An Inquirer columnist said the National Capital Region and all LGUs have been classified as low- risk because of falling cases. Latest Metro-wide indicators are very low; positivity rate is at 5 percent (within WHO standard), reproduction number or R-naught is at 0.53 (WHO standard is 1.0), health care utilization is at 30 percent (low) while total Attack Daily Average Rate (ADAR) is at a very low 5.72 per 100,000 with just 500 new cases per day from 5,638 in September.
Experts say we are witnessing “enough immunity” dominating the entire country due to vaccines and “natural immunity.” Government expects nationwide herd immunity by February 2022, but its present vaccination speed of only 587,000 a day points to an April finish. And we must rush because looking at daily death figures, the virus becomes deadlier on the “unvaccinated” population.
MMDA chair Benhur Abalos says Metro Manila surpassed the 70 percent “herd immunity” population threshold and is now at 80 percent. He expects to reach 84 percent of fully vaccinated individuals this November. These “protected NCR population” and the 832,905 COVID-19 survivors have all developed natural immunity against the virus. NCR daily death rates today are at a minimal 3 to 6.
Today, scientists are seeing patterns of Delta spike staying approximately 4 months long (Start-peak-end) in every country in the world, like in India, USA and Indonesia. The Philippines, some say, is already past the spike unlike other ASEAN nations.
But the best news to come is the availability of two inexpensive oral targeted anti-viral medicines, proven effective in clinical trials and published in highly respected scientific journals. These oral drugs, together with the increasing “immunity” of our countrymen, will further intensify efforts to finally control and shut out the pandemic.
First is the anti-depressant Fluvoxamine, an easy to take pill for newly infected COVID-19 patients. The October 27 issue of Lancet Global Health says a 10-day course of Luvox (Fluvoxamine) cut hospitalizations by two-thirds and reduced death by 91 percent. This existing medicine used by millions of people for two to three decades is available at every pharmacy in the US and a 10-day course costs only $10. I was also told that Luvox (Fluvoxamine) is widely prescribed here as an “anti-depressant.”
The second is Merck’s anti-viral drug Molnupiravir, granted a Compassionate Special Permit by DOH-FDA in September. This “oral COVID-19 drug capsule” registered an 81-percent efficacy on 1,200 mild COVID-19 cases in clinical trials in India. After five days of continuous intake, 921 patients tested negative in their RT-PCR tests. Its importer, Jack Pharma Inc., announced that Molnupiravir will be available to the public this month. Estimated cost is between P100 and P130 per 200-mg capsule.
Covid is still very much around
The virus will still be around, but this time, unlike two years ago, our doctors, medical front liners and citizens are better protected by effective medicines at all stages of COVID-19, said the columnist.
For the newly infected, one can take the cheaper Luvox for ten days or choose the more expensive Molnupiravir for five days. Both effective treatments will keep the “symptomatic” and the mild cases out of the hospitals. If a patient gets serious or critical, available and effective anti-COVID-19 drugs— although still experimental—are the anti-Ebola drug Remdesivir and the repurposed rheumatoid arthritis Tocilizumab.
However, the prevalent fear of yet another stronger and deadlier COVID-19 variant emerging after Delta was also downplayed by experts, simply because Delta is its COVID-19’s most potent, most infectious with the highest reproduction number.
These positive developments point to a decreasing fear against this virus which has already killed 43,276 Filipinos and infected 2,790,735.
Before Christmas and New Year, this low and vanishing risk of death will be further lessened struck by natural immunity and available oral vaccines. And the inevitable will happen, this pandemic will become a “treatable and far less deadly disease” than seasonal flu and pneumonia.
My take
Let us all work at it so we can all have a stress- free and holier Christmas and New Year’s days participating in religious services and seeing our loved ones, once again.