When the Senate’s Sara Duterte Bloc managed a coup on Monday, May 11, 2026, I instantly felt that a chapter had been turned in our political history. Alan Peter Cayetano had recruited two Senators from the Sotto 13 that had unseated Chiz Escudero on September 8, 2025.
Since I became known for predicting coups in December 1989, many people have asked me for my current and latest predictions regarding extra constitutional and extra parliamentary activities and events.
I was an active participant in the 1970 First Quarter Storm until just before the Declaration of Martial Law, the post Ninoy Assassination and pre–EDSA I (against Marcos), the Erap Impeachment and pre EDSA II (against Erap) and proposed EDSA IV (against GMA; EDSA III was the pro Erap uprising on May 1, 2001) planning and activities.
While I was in the Cory Administration as Deputy Commissioner and Commissioner of the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) from March 1986 until November of 1989, I was very active in monitoring and countering attempted coups as well as People Power Uprisings. After Cory fired me for predicting the December 1, 1989, coup attempt (the longest lasting in Philippine history), I continued my practice of gathering and analyzing information both regarding legal and illegal political developments.
In my line of expertise, it is important that one gathers and analyzes information and gives predictions truthfully and not according to one’s biases or desires. There is however a difference if one’s calling is to be a propagandist and not an impartial analyst. In my experience, I sometimes crossed the line and turned propagandist making use of my credibility as a coup predicter to destabilize the enemy, usually the incumbent administration.
Long before the possibility of a successful coup or People Power Uprising, the incumbent should be demonized and destabilized. There has been an active campaign to do this against PBBM and the Marcos Administration for the past two years.
Unless the incumbent commits major mistakes, the Opposition is hard put to unseat the Administration by either People Power or Elections. The Achilles Heel of PBBM is his first cousin, former Speaker and now Leyte Congressman Martin Romualdez (the son of Imelda’s favorite sibling and younger brother, Benjamin “Kokoy” Romualdez). He did not learn his political history lesson from those who experienced it – Speakers Ramon V. Mitra of Palawan ( July 27, 1987 – June 30, 1992) who ran on May 11, 1992 under the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) and Jose de Venecia, Jr. of the 4th district of Pangasinan (July 27, 1992 – June 30, 1998 and July 23, 2001 – February 5, 2008) who ran on May 11, 1998 under the Lakas – NUCD – UMDP - Kammpi, are the best examples of incumbent Speakers who ran for President and lost. Other former Speakers who ran for President after holding other positions were Sergio Osmena of the 2nd district of Cebu (October 16, 1907 – June 6, 1916 and October 16 , 1916 – March 14, 1922) who ran on April 23, 1946 under the Nacionalista Party and Jose Yulo of the 3rd district of Negros Occidental (January 24, 1939 – December 16, 1941) who ran on November 12, 1957 under the Liberal Party and Manny Villar of Las Pinas (July 27, 1998 – November 13, 2000) who ran on May 10, 2010. Among former Speakers who did not get to run for President but strongly ambitioned to do so were Jose Laurel, Jr. (NP) of the 3rd didtrict of Batangas (January 25, 1954 – December 10, 1957 and February 2, 1967 – April 1, 1971) and Cornelio Villareal, Jr. (LP) of the 2nd district of Capiz (March 8, 1962 – February 2, 1967 and April 1, 1971 – January 17, 1973).
Incumbent Senate Presidents who ran for President were relatively more successful like Manuel L. Quezon (NP/1935), Manuel A. Roxas (LP/April 23, 1946) and Ferdinand E. Marcos (NP/November 9, 1965). Unsuccessful former Senate Presidents were Jovito Salonga (LP/May 11, 1992) and Manny Villar (NP/May 10, 2010).
The most successful former Speaker was Manuel Roxas of the 1st district of Capiz (October 27, 1922 – August 23, 1933) who ran for President under the new Liberal Party on April 23, 1946 in the last Commonwealth Elections for President, Vice President, Senators (16 out of 24) and 98 Representatives, against incumbent President Sergio Osmena of the Nacionalista Party, and won. Elpidio Quirino (LP) defeated Eulogio Rodriguez (NP) for Vice President. Manuel Roxas was the last Senate President of the Commonwealth. He was the last President of the Commonwealth and first President of the Republic. He was a prodigy of both President Manuel Quezon and General Douglas MacArthur.
Martin Romualdez should have just ambitioned to be the kingmaker of the next President and Vice President for the term 2028 – 2034. That way he could have chosen among the more popular Presidentiables. The Uni Team of Marcos and Duterte might have survived and Sarah would have been the most popular and logical Uni Team candidate for President in 2028. The Marcos Romualdez clan might have bargained for one of their own to be the VP running mate of Sarah. The Marcos Romualdez clan could have protected both, the Marcos legacy and the clan from reprisals.
However, God has his ways. Neither EDSA People Power, the Yellow Wave, Cory, FVR, GMA and PNoy Administrations nor the PCGG, Ombudsman and Sandiganbayan could crush and erase the Marcos Dynasty and Legacy. However, from within their own Marcos-Romualdez Clan, a Bongbong and a Martin have set the stage for the second Marcos fall forty - two years after EDSA I.
The May 11, 2026, Senate coup was designed and intended to protect VP Sarah during the Senate Impeachment Trial and batter and crush the Marcos Romualdez Clan for the next two years.
The Duterte Marcos fight to the death, the ICC trial of PRRD and Bato de la Rosa (and possibly Bong Go), the VP Sarah Senate Impeachment Trial under the new Gatchalian Majority of 12 (and possibly 13 in the future) and the passage of the long Constitutionally mandated Anti Dynasty Law, will open the field for both new and old Presidentiables.
Among the new are the Tulfo brothers, Raffy and Erwin, Risa Hontiveros and Bam Aquino.
Alone among the old for now is former Vice President and current Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo. In one-on-one surveys against front runner Sarah both Tulfo and Robredo are statistically tied. Both deny wanting or intending to run for President in 2028.
My take is that both have learned the Binay lesson. After he won the Vice Presidency on May 10, 2010, former Makati Mayor Jejomar Cabauatan Binay was determined to run for President in May 2016. He made no ifs and buts about it. His enemies (Sonny Trillanes and former Makati City Engineer Erasga) and competitors (Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas) trained their guns on him. PNoy allowed the technically not qualified PRRD to run.
After a multi - year Senate Blue Ribbon Committee (Koko Pimentel) Sub Committee (TG Guingona) investigation, pending graft cases before the Sandigan Bayan against former Mayors Mrs. Elenita Binay and Jun Jun Binay, Jojo was brought down from leading Presidentiable in the surveys to second, third and fourth (by May 9, 2016).
#WeTakeAStand #OpinYon #OpinYonNews