Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow by Linggoy Alcuaz
Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow

My Fearful Forecast!

Oct 5, 2021, 12:26 AM
Linggoy Alcuaz

Linggoy Alcuaz

Columnist

LAST Wednesday, Pulse Asia released the results of its latest Ulat ng Bayan survey which was done on Sept 6 – 11, 2021.

The previous Pulse Asia Ulat ng Bayan was done on June 7 – 16, 2021. And the one before that was done on Nov 23 – Dec 2, 2020.

The figures for the top 8 presidentiables below are percentages with the Sept 6 – 11 results before the June 7 – 16 results and those for Nov 23 – Dec 2 last.

Sara - 20/28/26, Bongbong - 15/13/14, Isko - 13/14/12, Manny - 12/8/10, Grace - 9/10/14, Leni - 8/6/8, Ping - 6/4/4, Go - 3/3/4;

For 8 vice presidentiables, we only have the last two surveys:

Sotto - 25/10, Duterte - 14/18, Isko - 12/14, Bongbong - 12/10, Manny - 7/9, Alan - 6/8, Go - 7/5, Sonny - 2/2;

It is too early to rely on the surveys. The survey has to be based on those who are actually running for resident and vice president.

However, in so far as both Duterte’s are concerned, we can discern a trend. Both Sara and PDU30 have gone down from June to September.

This is consistent with many developments among the father and the daughter as well as inside the Duterte administration.

Over the past few months, it has become clearer that father and daughter cannot work together.

My forecast is that Sara will really not run for President. In fact, she has filed for official leave and is going abroad for medical reasons from October 5 – 8.

Neither PDU30 nor the PDP Laban will be able to convince Senator Bong Go to accept his nomination for president.

PDU30 will continue to run for vice president because he wants to retain some clout and escape prosecution.

It appeared at the beginning of his administration that PDU30 had three options to perpetuate himself in power.

The first and simplest was to build up his daughter to be his political successor not only at the local level but also at the national level.

Second, was to amend the Constitution in order to shift from a presidential to a parliamentary form of government.

Third, was to use the military and police for an extra constitutional power grab.

He gave up on the constitutional amendment a long time ago.

Today, Duterte’s mental and physical condition are way below Marcos’s situation when he was planning to impose Martial Law in 1970 – 1972.

The only thing that he is better off now than Marcos was then, is his popularity.

However, that is now slipping away. If he and his daughter cannot agree on a game plan, then PDU30 has run out of options to remain in power at the national level beyond June 30, 2022.

Meanwhile, his continuing defense of the DOH, PS-DBM and Pharmally, will continue to erode his popularity.

His latest instructions to the military, police and executive branch officials not to cooperate with the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee investigation point to his complicity.

Bongbong, Isko and Manny have been consistently grouped together in three surveys over ten months.

Leni, Ping and Go have consistently brought up the rear. It’s very hard to understand the consistently low ratings of Leni considering that she beat Bongbong in 2016 and got 35.11 %.

Last Friday, she was nominated by Isambayan as its choice for President. However, she did not immediately accept.

Ping was the spoiler in 2004 when he ran against FPJ and got 10.88 % of the votes for President.

Ping has run and won as senator three times: In 2001, he made 10th place and got 35.74 %, in 2007 3rd place and 52.6 % and in 2016, 4th place and 37.82 %.

As of last Friday, there were three declared candidates for vice president: Senate President Vicente ‘Tito’ Sotto (Ping), Buhay Party List Congressman Lito Atienza (Manny) and Dr. Willie Ong (Isko).

Tito has run and won as senator four times: In 1992, he made 1st place and got 40.27, in 1998 3rd place an got 39.3 %, in 2010 he got 9th place and got 31.17 % and in 2016 he got 3rd and 38.51 %.

In the latest Pulse Asia survey for vice presidential preference, Tito leads Duterte by 9 %.

In my August 9 - 15 column ‘Leni’s Secret Weapon!’, I explored the possibility of Leni’s not running for president and instead becoming the kingmaker.

Her recent public statements always revolve around unity. She has been talking to Isko, Manny and Ping.

She should persuade Ping to give way. In return, she should negotiate with Isko and Manny to accommodate Tito for vice president and the top senatorial candidates of Ping, Tito and the Liberal Party in their slates.

Between Isko and Manny, Isko has better momentum as of the present.

On the other hand, while Manny is running, he will be contesting the Dutertes’ base in Mindanao.


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