“Minilateralism” based on a US-led hub-and-spokes alliance with Japan and the Philippines brings assurance “amid lingering doubts” of US disengagement, a Japanese analyst says.
It also boosts Japan’s military footprint in Southeast Asia, says Dr. Miyoko Taniguchi, a Professor of International Relations and Peace Studies at Miyazaki Municipal University in Japan.
Calling it “minilateralism”, Taniguchi says American alliance with Japan and the Philippines “is an assurance given lingering doubts partners have regarding the possibility of US disengagement from the region, It also boosts Japan’s military footprint in Southeast Asia and reduce Philippines dependence on the United States.”
The United States promotes more burden-sharing with Japan in regional security with a military footprint in Southeast Asia to enhance deterrence and response capabilities in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, says Taniguchi who is affiliated with the East-West Center established by the US Congress in 1960 to promote better relations and understanding between the United States, Asia, and the Pacific.
Noting that the recent revision of Japan’s National Security Strategy was accompanied by an increase in the country’s defense budget, Taniguchi says Japan’s trilateral cooperation with the Philippines and the US serves not only to keep the United States engaged in the Indo-Pacific but also to allow the Philippines to reduce its dependence on and increase its bargaining power with the United States.
On April 11, the United States, Japan, and the Philippines agreed to deepen security and economic ties, with a joint statement outlining their shared commitment to maintaining a free and open rule-based international order in the Indo-Pacific region.
“The strengthening of trilateral cooperation is a significant strategic move to institutionalize the deterrence and response capabilities of US allies and partners, especially to protect the territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea and East China Sea,” Taniguchi says.
“The institutionalization and operationalization of this “minilateral” cooperation, based on long-standing US-Japan and US-Philippines bilateral relations, is also a measure to mitigate any political uncertainty and instability that may arise as a result of the 2024 US presidential election.”
Taniguchi explains the rationales behind advancing trilateral cooperation:
First, he says, despite the risk of escalating tensions with China and the entrapment of Taiwan in a contingency, the Philippines sees cooperation with the United States and Japan as a means to gain strategically significant resources and support.
“These strategic benefits include assistance to increase deterrence and military capabilities, wider channels and more mechanisms for economic development, and diplomatic support for maintaining national sovereignty in the South China Sea.
“Conversely, given the doubt surrounding the US commitment to the role of security guarantor in the South China Sea and wider region, bringing Japan into the cooperation allows the Philippines to mitigate some of these concerns.”
Trilateral cooperation with Japan serves not only to keep the United States engaged in the Indo-Pacific but also to allow the Philippines to reduce its dependence on and increase its bargaining power with the United States, Taniguchi says.
Second, Japan maintains a geopolitical position in the Indo-Pacific as a regional hub through this cooperation by taking more roles in regional security to share the burdens with the United States, he says.
Although Japan cannot act as a security guarantor due to constitutional constraints, it remains a regional power with the will and capabilities to maintain a rules-based international order, sharing democratic values and strategic interests with the United States and the Philippines, Taniguchi explains.
“Under Japan’s initiative, trilateral cooperation with the Philippines broadens the purview of efforts beyond East Asia to include Southeast Asia, covering the East China Sea, South China Sea, and the defense of the associated sea lanes.”
Through cooperation, the United States promotes more burden-sharing with Japan in regional security with a military footprint in Southeast Asia to enhance deterrence and response capabilities in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, Taniguchi says.
“Given lingering doubts partners have regarding the possibility of US disengagement from the region, trilateral cooperation helps maintain the US commitment to its allies, especially where there are maritime border disputes.”
The military presence of US forces in the northern parts of the Philippines through the expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement strengthens deterrence across the Taiwan Strait, Taniguchi says.
“Overall, this trilateral cooperation, as part of minilateralism efforts based on the US-led hub-and-spokes alliance system, can function as a mechanism to strengthen security ties among like-minded states and complement the US alliances.
“Moreover, trilateral engagement is more resilient against policy shifts and changes in leadership, especially the upcoming US presidential election, in all three countries. It serves to keep the US engaged in the region and maintains the continuity of security and defense policies in the Indo-Pacific.”
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