Every Monday, since May 11, 2026, the Senate Duterte Majority, the Mass Media and us, ordinary but interested spectators, widen our ears as 3;00 p.m. approaches. Has one or have two of the majority senators decided to change sides? The minority has grown from nine to eleven. The two abstainee/independent senators have declared that they belong to the minority.
The majority claims to remain a solid thirteen. However, Senator Bato de la Rosa has gone into hiding from the law, in particular – the ICC warrant of arrest. Although Senator Rodante Markoleta filed a resolution to amend the Senate Rules, so as to allow absent senators to vote electronically, it would mean that if Bato were to do it, he would be able to be tracked electronically also. That leaves only twelve voting able Senators in the majority.
If two join the minority, then all positions can be declared vacant. If only one changes sides, all positions except that of the Senate President can be reorganized. Cayetano has a one vote difference to survive but he would end up being a “lame duck” Senate President, running the Senate alone while all other leadership positions would belong to the other side.
This situation will be playing out in the next eight weeks. In that same period there will be three significant dates on which to organize big indignation and protest rallies: Friday, June 12, Independence Day, Monday, July 6, the start of the actual Impeachment Trial and Monday, July 27, the Opening of Congress and State of the Nation Address (SONA). Other than the hidden motivations of would-be defectors from Cayetano’s present majority, a surging indignation and protest movement in the streets can and may turn a vote or two in favor of a new majority or even a new Senate President.
Most of the participants in the big moderate rallies will again be placated by a change in the Senate majority and President. They will leave the Impeachment Trial to run its course under the new non Duterte majority and Senate President. As we approach the anniversary of the 2025 SONA where PBBM said, “Mahiya Naman Kayo!”, pressure from public opinion will be made to bear on the Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches of Government to hasten the process of catching and punishing the perpetrators of the “Flood Control Scams”.
The presentation of evidence against Vice President Sara Zimmerman Duterte will be given the widest leeway under the new majority and Senate President. Sooner rather than later Bato will be arrested and turned over to the ICC. Unless the Administration of PBBM commits major mistakes, Sara’s popularity and satisfaction ratings will continue to slide down. Defections among Duterte supporters will increase, more Duterte assets will be discovered and frozen. The Dutertes’ capabilities for the May 2028 national elections will be severely impaired.
Although securing sixteen votes to convict Sarah will still be almost impossible, Sara will be rendered a lame duck by the public opinion surveys in the third quarter, July to September.
A year before the October 2027 deadline for filing certificates of candidacy for the May 2028 Presidential Elections, the Reformist and Marcos blocs should realize that there should be a modus vivendi between them. For the Reformists, it is imperative that they can seize a chance to reform Philippine politics and society once more. For the Marcos bloc it will be sheer survival and a chance to perpetuate a better Marcos Legacy the second time around, post 2028 as compared to post 1986 – forty two years or almost a half a century apart.
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