Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow by Linggoy Alcuaz
Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow

How Wrong are the Surveys?

Aug 16, 2021, 11:53 PM
Linggoy Alcuaz

Linggoy Alcuaz

Columnist

IN my ‘YTT’ column last week, “VP Robredo’s Secret Weapon!” I wrote all too soon.

If I had written and submitted my column on Friday, rather than on Thursday, I would have known VP Maria Leonor ‘Leni’ Robredo’s explanation about her meeting with Senator and new ‘Reporma’ President Panfilo ‘Ping’ Lacson.

The past three to six months have seen a lot of political maneuverings. It started slowly on the side of the opposition with the slow organization and relatively muted launching of ‘1Sambayan’.

This was followed on the side of the administration on two fronts. The noisier and more acrimonious one, was the distancing by Senator ‘Manny’ Pacquiao from the Duterte administration and the split within the biggest administration political party – the PDP Laban.

The second one was the gentler and less negative repositioning by Senate President and NPC President ‘Tito’ Sotto and Senator ‘Ping’ Lacson from the administration, but not to the opposition, but rather to the center between the two.

Then, the news started to leak that VP Robredo was holding talks with the other presidentiables as well as vice presidentiables.

This is where, I wrote too early. After the meeting between Lacson and Robredo had already provoked reactions from former Senator Antonio ‘Sony’ Trillanes, the Lacson proposal was revealed.

The proposal was for all non - administration presidential candidates to file their certificates of candidacy before the deadline in October and proceed with their pre – campaign and campaign proper.

At a certain point before the election, all the other non - administration candidates will withdraw in favor of the leading candidate in accordance with the numbers in the surveys.

However, Robredo rejected the above formula. She said that any unification should be done before the filing of CoC.

She said that once she started running, she would run all the way until the end. So, there went my theory that Robredo could be the kingmaker.

Actually, in theory, it’s still possible. However, with only two months to go before the deadline, it is highly improbable.

Neither the Robredo nor the Lacson camps went into the detail that there is a later deadline sometime in December for substitution of candidates within a party.

Before continuing, let us divert to the matter of popularity surveys.

I have been familiar with surveys since 1985, the year before the snap elections.

These are face- to -face scientific public opinion surveys.

However, there is always the possibility that the people surveyed don’t tell their true feelings to the surveyor.

They may suspect that the surveyor is an agent of a business, a politician or even an enemy.

During the pre - EDSA period, there were too few independent political surveys.

Thus, it is difficult to compare ‘fear of Marcos’ with fear of Duterte’. Political surveys sprouted during the three decades, 1986 – 2016, of emphasized freedoms.

However, in the past five years, the Duterte administration reversed the tide and has been narrowing our freedoms.

Not since the Spanish colonization and the Japanese occupation, not even during the Marcos dictatorship, has a chief executive exerted as much effort as Duterte to scare people.

The big question is how much did Duterte’s threats affected the accuracy of surveys.

The bigger this was, the more it will redound to increased popularity for the opposition in future surveys.

Aside from the fear factor, there are also the ‘balimbing’ and ‘nahihiya’ factors.

Many Filipinos want to appear to be with the powers that be and are ashamed to be identified with the ‘outside the kulambo’.

How many are these among those who voted for Duterte in the past surveys? These will tend to go to the center – the Lacson – Sotto tandem.

Then, there are also those respondents who are confused. They may not like the policies or implementation by the government but blame the wrong person or agency.

An example of this would be the closure and denial of the renewal of the franchise of ABS-CBN. These actions by the administration as well as issues regarding China were as unpopular as Duterte remained popular.

The official ninety - day campaign period as well as the whole year before the May 2022 elections will serve as an educational process for the elections.

Issues will be amplified and to a certain extent the voters will be educated.

Hopefully, the non - administration candidates will hammer away at the sole Duterte candidate than at each other.

The Duterte candidate will have to answer for all the failures of the administration more than the newly distanced former Duterte supporters.

Meanwhile, Duterte’s pet peeve of the month is Manila Mayor ‘Isko’ Domagoso Moreno.

Which means that he is for the moment, the favorite of both the mass and the social media. However, is he going for president or vice president?

Meanwhile, what are the intentions of former Speaker and Senator Alan Peter Cayetano, former presidential candidate and still Senator Richard ‘Dick’ Gordon and former Senator and vice presidential candidate Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Edralin Marcos, Jr.?


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