Tomorrow is the 49th anniversary of the official declaration of Martial Law.
However, the actual implementation was on Friday night and Saturday morning, September 22 – 23, 1972.
Last August 21, was the 50th anniversary of the bombing of Plaza Miranda.
The next day, Sunday, August 22, 1971, then President Ferdinand Edralin Marcos suspended the Writ of Habeas Corpus.
Today, under the 1987 ‘Cory’ Constitution, the President is limited to one six - year term.
At that time, under the amended 1935 Commonwealth Constitution, the President was limited to two four - year terms.
The original 1935 Constitution also called for a single six - year term. However, this was amended to two four - yearterms in 1941.
President Manuel L. Quezon claimed that six years was too long for a bad President and too short for a good President.
However, the real reason for the single term limitation was in order to prevent an incumbent President from abusing his office in pursuit of re – election.
The elections of 1949 (incumbent President Elpidio Quirino beat Jose P. Laurel), 1969 (incumbent Marcos beat Sergio ‘Serging’ Osmena) and 2004 (incumbent President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo beat FPJ), are examples of the extent to which an incumbent will go in order to win the election.
Thrice, the incumbent lost to the challenger.
In 1953, Quirino was defeated by Defense Secretary Ramon Magsaysay. In 1961, President Carlos P. Garcia was defeated by Vice President Diosdado Macapagal.
In 1965, Macapagal was defeated by Marcos.
Twice, in 2010 and 2016, the incumbents (GMA and President Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Cojuangco Aquino) did not do everything possible to make their candidates (Secretaries Gilbert ‘Gibo’ Cojuangco Teodoro and Manuel ‘Mar’ Araneta Roxas) win.
Let us compare the options that Marcos had then (fourteen months before the November 1973 National Elections) and Duterte has now (eight months before the May 2022 National Elections) in order to remain in power beyond their terms as President.
The simplest option for the Marcoses then, was to make First Lady Imelda Romualdez Marcos run.
However, it was obvious since Marcos’s re – election in 1969 and the 1970 ‘First Quarter Storm’ that both Ferdie and Meldy were very unpopular.
Today, we cannot as yet prove that both Duterte and Sara are unpopular. However, father and daughter obviously have much less team work than the Marcoses.
Marcos had the 1971 Constitutional Convention still in session. However, his plot to insert a provision removing the term limits for President had been torpedoed by the expose of Leyte Concon delegate Quintero.
In five years, Duterte has failed to get a Constitutional Convention nor a Constituent Assembly running.
Ultimately, it was essential for Marcos’s last option, the declaration of Martial Law, to have an ongoing constitutional convention, controlling it, finishing a draft and submitting it to a plebiscite and having it approved before his legal term expired on December 30, 1973.
Even though the approval was by a mere ‘Viva Voce’ barangay assemblies, the Supreme Court upheld them.
When they assumed office, both Marcos and Duterte, prioritized their influence and control over the military and the national police.
Marcos assumed the position of Secretary of National Defense. Duterte doubled the salaries of the military and the police.
Both of them played favorites. Marcos in favor of Ilocanos and Duterte in favor of those who had served in Davao and with whom he had gotten acquainted.
Marcos had good timing. At that time military personnel retired after thirty years of service.
Since many old soldiers had been commissioned or enlisted just before the start of World War II in the Pacific, many were retiring in 1971.
Promotions in the AFP speeded up and almost everybody was relatively happy unlike in the time before EDSA.
On the other hand, Jose Maria Sison, had split the old moribund PKP and HMB.
He organized the CPP and NPA in December 1968 and March 1969. As a result of his re – election in November 1969, the FQS had burst out and maintained its momentum until September 1972.
The NPA was perceived to be much bigger than it was. In reality, it was Martial Law that caused the rapid expansion of the CPP/NPA, as well as the Muslim National Liberation Front.
Marcos was able to justify both to a domestic and international audience that Martial Law was necessary.
In spite of the 2017 Marawi siege, Emergency Rule in Mindanao, as well as the COVID 19 Pandemic, Duterte has not been able to manage the perception that Martial Law is necessary.
Thus, he is left with just one option – running for Vice President and choosing a running mate for President. Will he be able to find one who is willing and whom he can trust?