The arrest and subsequent detention of former President Rodrigo Duterte is not merely a legal maneuver; it is a calculated political act aimed at reshaping the Philippine political landscape.
While legal justifications may be cited, the underlying motivation of the administration is to neutralize the strongest opposition force ahead of the 2028 presidential elections.
The administration’s political calculations
The government’s expectation is that the initial outrage over Duterte’s arrest will subside over time, allowing them to push forward with their broader political agenda. Their strategic objectives appear to be threefold:
- Time as a Political Weapon: The administration is betting that the public’s anger will wane. By controlling the narrative through media influence and legal processes, they aim to normalize Duterte’s detention, making it seem like an inevitable course of justice rather than a politically motivated move.
- Control of the Senate After 2025: The administration understands that to remove Vice President Sara Duterte, they need enough votes in the Senate. The 2025 midterm elections present a crucial opportunity to secure a supermajority that could facilitate her impeachment and removal from office.
- Paving the Way for a Marcos-Romualdez Ticket in 2028: With both Dutertes out of the political equation, the opposition to another Marcos presidency weakens significantly. This would create a smoother path for either Senator Imee Marcos or House Speaker Martin Romualdez to run with minimal resistance in 2028.
The opposition’s imperatives
For those opposed to this political maneuvering, two critical objectives must be achieved:
- Sustaining Public Outrage: The detention of former President Duterte must remain a rallying cry. The opposition must continually highlight the injustice of the arrest, ensuring that the Filipino people do not become desensitized to the issue. Protests, social media campaigns, and community engagements should be utilized to keep the momentum alive. The narrative must emphasize not only Duterte’s plight but also the broader implications for democracy and political freedom in the country.
- Winning the 2025 Senate Elections: Perhaps the most tangible way to counteract the administration’s plan is to prevent them from gaining control of the Senate. A strong opposition showing in the 2025 elections would serve as a bulwark against any moves to remove Vice President Sara Duterte.
The arrest of former President Duterte is not an isolated legal action but a well-planned step in a broader political game.
Whether the administration’s strategy succeeds depends largely on the response of the opposition and the Filipino people.
If the opposition can keep public sentiment alive and secure key Senate seats in 2025, they can prevent the political decimation of the Duterte camp and disrupt the administration’s long-term plans for 2028.
The battle is far from over; in many ways, it is just beginning.
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