In the face of escalating global tensions and economic disruptions, China-ASEAN trade relations have demonstrated remarkable resilience, especially amid the ongoing US-led tariff war. Over the past decade, ASEAN has steadily risen to become China’s top trading partner, with bilateral trade growing from $292.8 billion in 2010 to $982.3 billion by 2024. This impressive expansion highlights the increasing economic interdependence between the two sides, offering both a lifeline for China’s export-driven economy and a stabilizing market for ASEAN economies navigating shifting global supply chains.
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
A significant factor reinforcing this growing partnership is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trade bloc, encompassing 15 Asia-Pacific nations, including China and all ASEAN members. RCEP strengthens intra-Asian trade by reducing tariffs, streamlining customs procedures, and fostering economic integration across member states. By promoting intra-regional trade and investment flows, RCEP diminishes the region’s dependence on Western markets, particularly the United States, whose increasingly protectionist trade policies have disrupted global trade norms.
More than just a trade agreement, RCEP represents a strategic recalibration of the regional trade order. It offers ASEAN nations a platform to engage with major economies like China, Japan, and South Korea on a rules-based, multilateral framework that prioritizes regional growth and supply chain stability. By lowering barriers and improving market access, RCEP creates new opportunities for ASEAN businesses and positions the region as a central player in the evolving global economy.
Recalibrating the regional trade order
The current trade landscape, marked by the weaponization of tariffs and political pressure from Washington, has underscored the need for Asia to develop resilient economic partnerships beyond traditional Western-centered systems. In response, China’s “dual circulation” strategy has placed ASEAN at the heart of its external trade loop, focusing on boosting domestic consumption while deepening regional trade ties.
At the same time, initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continue to promote infrastructure connectivity across Southeast Asia, enhancing ports, highways, and rail systems that facilitate smoother trade flows and link ASEAN economies more closely with China and each other. Additionally, digital trade integration and e-commerce partnerships are transforming ASEAN into a vital trade and technology hub in the region, offering new avenues for growth and helping economies withstand external shocks and disruptions.
A new multipolar trade system
What is emerging is a multipolar, non-Western trade system, with China-ASEAN cooperation forming its foundation. This evolving framework provides ASEAN countries, including the Philippines, with valuable strategic options to participate in diverse economic arrangements without being tied to the shifting priorities of superpower rivalries.
For the Philippines in particular, this underscores the importance of strategic regional engagement over reactive alignment. By actively participating in RCEP and other ASEAN-China economic initiatives, the country can protect its national interests, gain access to new markets, and bolster its economic security in a rapidly changing global environment.
This multipolar system offers a pragmatic alternative to over-reliance on Western economies, presenting ASEAN nations with a chance to shape a fairer, more inclusive trade landscape that reflects the region’s growing economic clout.
China-Philippine relations beyond the South China Sea
While maritime tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) remain a sensitive issue, China-Philippine relations should not be narrowly defined by this dispute. There is room for bilateral dialogue and ASEAN-led cooperation as confidence-building measures, reducing the risk of conflict while fostering mutual understanding.
At the same time, both countries stand to benefit from strengthening ties in trade, infrastructure, digital economy partnerships, and people-to-people exchanges. By expanding cooperation in these areas, the Philippines can build a more balanced, stable, and mutually beneficial relationship with China — one that acknowledges maritime concerns but prioritizes shared economic prosperity and regional peace.
#WeTakeAStand #OpinYon #OpinYonColumn #RedTapesandRedFlags