For months now, I have been “advising” the Department of Agriculture (DA) and the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) not to be over-dreaming their palay production and rice inventory figures, which reality like extreme weather patterns could wipe out in just seconds.
So now, the DA is resigned to the reality that production would plunge– much to their dismay– and their pronouncements of good rice inventories could only be bolstered by, sigh, more imports.
At last, the DA now says the country’s palay production could plunge by the end of the year due to the gravity of damage inflicted on plantations by El Niño and typhoons, Business Mirror reported.
Here's the rest of the story: ““We can really expect palay output to be lower compared to last year because of the huge damage this year,” Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa told reporters.
De Mesa listed the impacts of El Niño and the series of typhoons that struck the country as reasons behind the projected decline in unmilled rice output.
“We are really seeing a massive extent of damage, because typhoon Kristine hit hard our major rice-producing regions and areas,” he added.
Storm damage
DA's latest bulletin said severe tropical storm “Kristine” destroyed agricultural commodities and infrastructure worth P5.75 billion.
Broken down, De Mesa explained that the Bicol Region sustained the most losses valued at P2.9 billion followed by Mimaropa at P746 million and Cagayan Valley at P621 million.
The DA noted that rice suffered most of the typhoon’s impact at 516,438 metric tons (MT); followed by damage of 35,616 MT for high-value crops; 3,334 MT for corn; 2,047 MT for cassava; and 416 MT for fisheries.
“We will eventually determine the extent of the decline, but there will be a [decline in] output, especially for rice this year,” De Mesa said.
The DA recently said the Philippines may end 2024 with a palay output of 19.41 million metric tons (MMT), 3.24 percent lower than the record 20.06 MMT it produced last year. The projected 2024 palay output is equivalent to 12.69 MMT in milled terms.
Imported rice, again
Despite the projected decline in palay output, De Mesa assured the public that the local production would be supplemented by the arrival of imported rice.
Government data showed that rice import arrivals as of October 24 have surpassed actual shipments for the whole of 2023.
Figures from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) showed that rice arrivals from January 1 to October 24 reached 3.676 MMT. The country imported 3.606 MMT of rice in 2023.
De Mesa also explained that the reduction in tariffs from 35 percent to 15 percent and India’s recent lifting of its ban on non-basmati white rice shipments would help augment rice supply.
Because tariffs went down, and India lifted its ban on rice exports, the rice imported by the Philippines would not cost so much, he explained.
Government official and industry sources earlier said India easing its export restrictions could affect world and domestic rice prices.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) also said in its recent report that Asian export quotes “declined significantly” in response to India lifting its export ban on non-basmati white rice.
“Vietnam quotes decreased by $28 to $534 per ton, while Thailand declined by $60 to $517 per ton with increased pressure from India’s return to the market,” the USDA said.
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