Faced with a sharp decline in palay production amid a growing population that consumes rice, the ongoing 2024 World Rice Conference at the Conrad Hotel in Pasay City, offers the country a wider array of potential suppliers of the staple to fill up its requirement, esp. during the lean months of January to February and July to September 15.
Already, the Department of Agriculture is projecting palay production to drop to a four-year low of 19.41 million metric tons coming from a strong output of slightly over 20 MMT in 2023. The decline is due to El Nino and could worsen because of the damage caused by successive strong typhoons in October.
The US Department of Agriculture projects Philippine rice imports to hit 4.7 MMT this year, reported Business World.
Rice imports, expected at 4.2 MMT would help build up reserves to bridge the lean period at the start of 2025, the paper said quoting former Undersecretary for Rice Leocadio S. Sebastian during the ongoing conference that ends today.
Sebastian was quoted on Wednesday saying that the Philippines imported 3.8 MMT as of October 31, which has already arrived and that the DA projects imports to reach 4.2 MMT by year end.
At the World Rice Conference Summit on Wednesday, former Undersecretary Leocadio S. Sebastian said: “The Philippines imported 3.8 million MT as of Oct. 31; that is the volume that has already arrived and the DA projects that it will probably reach 4.2 million MT by the end of the year.”
“I think 400,000 MT… would be the minimum. It could be more, but it will depend again on how our traders react to the global market,” Business World quoted him.
He said palay (unmilled rice) production is well behind the year-earlier pace because of crop damage.
“That is not including the effect of Kristine. Total production this year will be much lower than the 20 million produced last year,” he said.
He said the rice inventory ending balance at the close of 2024 needs to be sufficient to get through the lean periods, the next of which starts in January.
“Lean months are when the production is less than demand. So we are consuming more rice than what we are producing. These periods are July to Sept. 15 as well as January-February,” he said.
“Because of the projected shortfall this year, we may have to bring in more supply, either in December or in January, from my point of view,” he said.
Sebastian informed me that “considering the projected shortfall in production this year, we will most likely import more than 4.2 million metric tons this year and another 4 million mt in 2025.”
“Let’s hope rice production recovers next year to levels higher than the 2023 production. With the proper implementation of production-enhancing strategies complemented by significant government funding, higher rice productivity is possible in the coming years,” he added.
“Next year, I think we really should continue to be a good market for exporters in Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, India, and Pakistan,” Business World noted.
#WeTakeAStand #OpinYon #OpinYonNews #WorldRiceSummit2024 #DA