If the source/s of former Senator Antonio Trillanes IV were to be believed that the Hague-based International Criminal Court is set to arrest former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte, his daughter Vice President and Education Secretary Sara and his two loyal aides– Senators Ronald dela Rosa and Christopher ‘Bong” Go– would be arrested by June or July over the bloody war on drugs and extra judicial killings during Duterte’s mayorship in Davao, then the sword of Damocles rests heavily on the shoulder of sitting president Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
If such arrests would materialize, then supporters of the former president— we can’t just dismiss them now as a weak force as they continue to be popular– would do everything to protect and defend their leader from being exiled and jailed. (They have amassed such great wealth and influence to thwart such an arbitrary foreign action).
Considering the ongoing heated exchange between China and the Marcos administration over the West Philippine Sea conflict, there is a possibility that Duterte could escape from his ICC arrest with China’s help. He could easily seek asylum in this non-ICC member country.
As it is the country is so divided– since the election campaign in 2022 and up to now– between forces of this administration and those of Duterte (be it Sara’s or the father), who count even Sen. Imee Marcos as a staunch defender. (If I may add, the recent verbal tussle between Sara and First Lady Lisa Araneta Marcos, is a contributor to the fragile political environment).
Even if President Marcos has repeatedly been saying he does not support ICC’s continued probe into the mass killings in the drug war– calling it disrespectful of our sovereignty and justice system– still he gave instructions to the justice department to study the possibility of re-entering (and respecting the system) of ICC and the ramifications of such an arrest taking place here. This would make him look like 1) he is either afraid of ignoring a UN agency and its consequences and 2)he has taken the political arena higher with the ICC’s intervention removing from his way all stumbling blocks to his leadership– the Dutertes included.
Sen. Imee’s assurance that the coup plots against her brother are old rehash, still her active involvement and declarations in favor of the Dutertes have widened the political rift in the country giving people the impression that: a) FMJr. is so weak he can’t even win over his own sister to his side or that b) Imee has ambitions to run for higher or the highest office with Sara’s support. Imee has been vociferously against 1) the Maharlika sovereign fund (now water under the bridge) and b) the People’s Initiative to amend the 1987 Constitution.
She has been suspiciously quiet and would not defend her own brother from attacks about his cocaine use/dependency.
The country’s political environment is now teetering between Marcos Jr. and the Dutertes and this can only be stabilized depending on how fast and decisive ICC acts and how determined Marcos is in making such arrests happen during his term.
Of late, reports say that the Marcos administration is still preparing for “all legal options” including returning to the Rome Statute of 2002 that established the ICC to probe crimes against humanity, genocide and other abuses.
Presidential Communications Secretary Cheloy Garafil was quick to explain that the DoJ briefer would not reflect or affect the previous decision of her boss regarding the ICC probe. She insists that FM Jr. remains consistent with his previous pronouncements on the ICC matter.
Assistant Justice Secretary Jose Dominic Clavano IV on Wednesday said the legal brief being prepared would be an “objective statement or an analysis of the pros and cons of each option” to guide President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on “how he will move.
“Once the ICC warrants of arrest, if ever, are issued, then he will know what the legalities are, his options, and the President’s remedies,” the Department of Justice (DOJ) official said in a press briefing.
Clavano later told reporters in a message that the legal brief would be done “with an awareness that policy frameworks may evolve.”
Clavano clarified that the government’s stance of not recognizing the ICC’s jurisdiction in the country did not change.
“Nonetheless, we have an awareness that it could change. And we have to be prepared for all of this. We are the Department of Justice and as any legal team would tell you, you really have to consider all the options. You have plan A, you have plan B, all the way to Plan Z,” he said.d More
“We don’t want to clip the President’s options.”
Despite its lack of information on when the ICC might order Duterte’s arrest, Clavano said the DOJ is already studying the legal aspects, including the “possible reentry into the Rome Statute.”
“That’s all included — what are the implications of staying out, what are the implications of going back, what are the legal obligations that may arise — all of that. As well as the arrival of possible, or alleged, ICC warrants of arrest, that is also included in the legal briefer,” Clavano said.
He said Marcos had long ordered the DOJ and the Office of the Solicitor General to study the possible legal issues.
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