Eastern Visayas has recently posted a remarkable turnaround in its external trade performance, recording a USD 420.68 million trade surplus in April 2025.
Just a year earlier, in April 2024, the region was nursing a USD 160.86 million deficit.
The scale of this reversal is striking: exports more than tripled, from USD 124.69 million to USD 457.82 million, while imports collapsed by 87 percent, from USD 285.55 million to USD 37.15 million.
At first glance, the numbers seem like cause for celebration. A 20.7 percent increase in the region’s total external trade indicates deeper integration into global markets.
Export volumes also grew by 20.1 percent, showing that Eastern Visayas is shipping more goods abroad, not just benefiting from higher prices.
But beneath the glitter lies a more fragile reality.
The export boom rests almost entirely on a single pillar: copper shipments to Canada, which accounted for a staggering 94.4 percent of all exports.
This kind of dependence is a double-edged sword. While it delivers immediate gains, it also exposes the region to volatility.
A dip in copper demand, a price slump in global markets, or policy shifts in Canada could wipe out the surplus almost overnight.
While a reduction in foreign purchases might suggest efficiency, the scale of decline raises red flags.
Imports include fuel, cereals, and cement, which are vital inputs for industry, agriculture, and construction. Their steep drop may not signify strength but rather sluggish domestic demand or stalled production activities.
In fact, the volume of imported goods actually increased by 11.1 percent, but at much lower values—hinting at cheaper, possibly lower-quality inputs entering the local economy.
This paradox—soaring exports but shrinking imports—suggests that Eastern Visayas is not yet experiencing broad-based growth.
Instead, it is riding on a copper-driven high that risks masking underlying economic weaknesses. For a region still rebuilding from years of underinvestment and recurring climate shocks, this kind of one-track growth is unsustainable.
Policymakers should treat this surplus as a windfall, not a sign of permanent strength.
Now is the time to diversify the export base, support value-added industries, and ensure that agriculture and manufacturing are not hollowed out by dependence on one commodity.
Eastern Visayas may be shining bright today, but if it remains tethered to copper alone, the region could find that its glittering trade surplus was less an economic breakthrough and more a brittle bubble.
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