This week starts it all.
From October 1 to 8, all roads will lead to the offices of the Commission of Elections (Comelec) as candidates for local and national positions are set to file their certificates of candidacy (COCs) for the May 2025 elections.
The events of this week will put to rest all the rumors, speculations, and gossip as to who will continue their ambitions for the next year, who will decide to drop out, and whether any aspiring or incumbent candidate will pull any rabbits out of his or her hat.
“Dito na magkakaalaman kung sino ang totoo sa kanyang salita at kung sino ang nagpapa-importante lang,” an analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity told OpinYon Laguna. “Dapat nga, sa filing of certificates of candidacy pa lang, doon na makilatis ng mga botante ang sinseridad ng mga kandidato para maglingkod sa bayan.”
Gubernatorial race
Some sources told OpinYon Laguna that the next year’s gubernatorial race will be a two-way fight between incumbent 2nd District Representative Ruth Hernandez and former 3rd District Representative Sol Aragones.
Notably, it was Hernandez and Aragones who led OpinYon Laguna’s online survey last May – a survey that, unfortunately, was marred by troll accounts and manipulation.
The results have privately put doubts on whether two other aspirants – incumbent Vice Governor Karen Agapay and Santa Rosa City Representative Dan Fernandez – can carry through their campaigns without losing face.
For instance, despite his recent appearances on the national level in congressional investigations, Fernandez has made a poor showing on the local level, with him trailing behind the three other candidates in OpinYon Laguna’s gubernatorial survey.
“Sa akin lang, kung nagdesisyon si Fernandez na tumakbong Senador, baka may pag-asa pa siya,” an analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity told OpinYon Laguna.
Speculations
Meanwhile, observers are now eyeing with interest (and concern) San Pedro City, where local politics will be sure to get heated up in the run-up for 2025.
While incumbent Mayor Art Mercado is now reportedly finalizing the official slate of his administration (as sources reported to OpinYon Laguna), there’s still much that is left to speculation in the city – speculation that is expected to be resolved during this week.
Some questions yet to be answered are: Will former Cabinet Secretary Melvin Matibag really make good his intentions (despite all his reported insistence on the contrary) to run for Mayor against Mercado? Who will the Matibag camp field in their slate, as, amazingly, their camp has kept quiet in their list of candidates?
Will the mayor’s wife Mika Mercado, whose tarpaulins are now all over the city, really run for congresswoman – either for the de facto lone district of San Pedro, currently held by Matibag’s wife Ann Matibag, or as a party-list representative?
Another matter of speculation is whether Vice Mayor Ina Olivarez will be accepted by the Mercado camp as his running mate.
Notably, Olivarez, in a social media post Thursday, expressed her intention to run again for Vice Mayor, with a picture of her and Mercado together.
Two members of Mercado’s 2022 councilors’ slate – incumbent Councilors Nina Almoro and Mike Casacop – have also expressed their intentions to run as vice-mayor in 2025.
Alams na!
In other cities and towns in Laguna, however, who’s going to run is now no secret, as some candidates are now displaying their full slate ahead of the filing of COCs.
In neighboring Biñan City, for instance, both Vice Mayor Gel Alonte (the chosen candidate of the incumbent LABarkada coalition) and Councilor Cookie Yatco had already revealed their full slate of candidates, from mayor, vice mayor, congressman to councilors.
On the other hand, in Santa Rosa City, it’s now an open secret that Mayor Arlene Arcillas will run again in a bid to continue the Arcillas family’s hold over the city.
It’s the congressional race that everybody’s watching for, as incumbent councilors Sonia Algabre and Roy Gonzales (and possibly, Board Member Danzel Fernandez) are expected to battle over the seat about to be vacated by Dan Fernandez who is on his last term.
Meanwhile, in Cabuyao City, it’s going to be a three-way battle between incumbent Mayor Dennis Hain, Vice Mayor Leif Opina, and former Mayor Mel Gecolea.
Early campaigning
Although officially, all candidates are barred from campaigning for their positions in the period between October 9 and the official start of the campaign season on March 28, political analysts believe politicians will circumvent the no-campaigning rule.
“Malaki nga ang advantage ng mga incumbent official dahil pwede silang mangampanya, kahit hindi officially, through their projects and programs,” sources informed OpinYon Laguna.
A political analyst also warned that some aspiring politicians will make an all-out effort to use the old tactic of showering money in a naked attempt to influence voters before the 2025 elections.
“Nakikita natin na may mga kandidato na hindi pa iwinawaksi ang ‘traditional’ style ng pangangampanya. In the past, laging ‘under-the-table’ ang ganitong bilihan ng boto, pero nakikita natin na sa sobrang desperado nilang makuha ang atensyon ng mga botante, baka gayahin nila yung ginagawa sa mga game show na nambabaril ng pera na ipaagaw sa mga tao,” one political analyst warned.
But will this tactic work with a new generation of voters, particularly the youth who are now more exposed to social media which makes them more vulnerable to misinformation and disinformation?
“As we’ve seen in 2022, the upcoming 2025 elections will also be a test for candidates on whether the traditional styles of campaigning can still work in today’s digital world,” the political analyst noted. “But we have hope that today’s youth will be more discerning and more critical of their choices in the upcoming polls.”
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