Not even the best scenario of one- to two-percent growth for the agriculture sector can be achieved this year because of the damage from crops from El Niño during the first half of the year and the threats of further losses from the coming La Nina, either this month until October.
At least, this is how several economists are looking at things now based on the reported losses from the damage from the recent typhoon "Carina" and the losses from droughts, dry spell and below-normal rainfall, all caused by the El Nino since late 2023.
The country’s overall output from agriculture could have shrunk by 1.5 to 2.5 percent in April to June from El Nino\, which is worse than the 1.3 percent decline in the value of production in agriculture and fisheries in the second quarter of 2023. This would be a reversal of the 0.05 percent growth in the first quarter of 2024, Executive Director Marie Annette Galvez-Dacul told Business World.
The weather bureau in early June declared the end of El Nino although the effects of dry spell persisted in many parts of the country.
Raul Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, said he expects a drop due to the lingering effects of El Niño during the second quarter.
“Some of the crops may have survived, but output and productivity would have been affected due to water stress,” he explained.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is set to release second-quarter data on farm output on Wednesday, August 7.
The agriculture sector contributes about a tenth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and provides around a quarter of all jobs, the paper added.
UA&P’s Dacul said she expected a decline in crops and fisheries output in the second quarter due to the unseasonably warm weather brought by El Niño.
The crop sub sector contributes over half to the country’s overall agricultural production. As of the first quarter, rice contributed about 20 percent to the total, while corn accounted for 8 percent.
The Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc., led by Danilo V. Fausto said farm growth for the second quarter was likely flat.
“(El Niño) didn’t hit too hard but there was still an effect. So, whatever we are expecting to have an increase in yield, in output, it might be dampened because of the El Niño,” Fausto told Business World.
Farm damage due to El Niño totaled P15.3 billion, with rice and corn being the most affected crops, based on DA’s final (August 2) bulletin.
The DA reported that total crop damage was at 784,344 metric tons covering 270,855 hectares of farmland, of which 68 percent or 184,182 hectares were deemed recoverable. It had affected 333,195 farmers and fisherfolks.
Dacul said that the poultry sector likely posted an increase in output in the second quarter, while livestock production may have been flat.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said last month that the DA’s target of 1 to 2 percent growth can be achieved barring any major typhoons during the second half of the year.
“For the second half, we are challenged because of La Niña. So, the agriculture sector really will be (impacted by it),” Fausto said.
The weather bureau projects a 70-percent chance that La Niña would occur during the months of August, September, and October. It would increase the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity in the coming months.
Roehlano M. Briones, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said that agricultural growth would likely be at 1 percent for the full year if the livestock, poultry and aquaculture sub-sectors recovered.
“The start of rains in July would have helped farmers recover, but the recent typhoon shows how unpredictable the weather can be and how vulnerable agriculture is to natural calamities,” Montemayor said.
But former DA Undersecretary Fermin Adriano said it is unlikely that the agricultural output would hit the DA’s target for the year.
“Now with incoming La Niña, further crop damage will be experienced. Assuming the optimistic projection is true, where will growth come from?” he quipped.
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