This coming New Year, many analysts are seeing challenging economic times and a political landscape heading to an ‘explosion’ in the run-up to the elections. Should Lagunenses still greet 2025 with hope and faith that better times are just around the corner?
Here we are again, ready to welcome this week another set
of 365 days.
For many of us, Filipinos have grown accustomed to welcoming the New Year with, as usual, hopes and prayers that this will be "the year" for us and for our families.
However, the vagaries of life are expected to once again push us back into an awful reality: the truth is, the year 2025 could bring as much fear than hope for most of us.
Especially so, since this is another crucial year for the Philippines---the year in which we will all once again select who will lead our provinces, our towns and cities for the next three years.
Cautiously optimistic?
As of the writing of this article (December 27), survey firms have yet to release year-end reports on whether many Filipinos will greet 2025 with hope or with dread.
But consider these past survey results that can give us hints on how ordinary folk like us see the coming new year.
Last November, a survey by SWS showed 47 percent, or less than half, of ordinary Filipinos expect their quality of life to improve over the next 12 months.
The survey, conducted during September, found that 47 percent of respondents believe their quality of life will get better, while 40 percent said it will remain the same, and 5 percent anticipated it to worsen.
Also, last October, a separate survey conducted by the Social Weather Station (SWS) noted that the number of Filipinos who saw themselves as poor went up from 58 percent last June to 59 percent in September.
Given that these surveys were conducted before the string of weather disturbances that lashed Luzon and Eastern Visayas during October and November, it’s not far-fetched to conclude that these numbers should go up by December.
‘So-so’ outlook
This cautious outlook adopted by Filipinos reinforces the forecast made by economic managers and other analysts, mirroring the continued fears brought by wide-range international crises.
For instance, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2025 at 6.2 percent, just a slight uptick from the 6 percent projected for 2024.
A GMA News article noted that the ADB's figures fall within the lower end of the Marcos administration’s GDP target range of 6.5 to 7.5 percent for 2025.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), on the other hand, gave a slightly lower GDP growth forecast at 6.1 percent, although it underscored that the downgrade was “really small” and that the country remains among the fastest growing in the Asian region.
That was the same forecast given by the World Bank (WB) for 2025, with the outlook depending on the Marcos administration's capabilities to improve conditions for domestic demand, such as “easing inflation, more accommodative monetary policy, and the government’s commitment to sustained public investment.”
Election year
Of course, one factor analysts are looking at is the possible impact of the 2025 midterm elections.
Here in Laguna province, one political analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity to OpinYon Laguna predicts a mix of volatility and predictability in the coming elections.
How so?
While the race for the gubernatorial seat is now seen as a hotly-contested fight between three legislators (and a former legislator), at least two towns in Laguna province won’t even see flames of political passion.
The reason: many candidates have no rivals at all – one, due to widely-entrenched political dynasties, and another, due to last-minute political maneuvering that averted a possibly riotous campaign.
That political analyst had earlier said that the 2025 local elections will be the most “boring” election this particular city will ever witness.
While, at first sight, this has come across as a sigh of relief for many investors and businesses who had feared a fierce battle, some believe a quiet election isn’t all much better for that city’s economy.
“The irony of it is that local politicians tend to spend all their funds like crazy during election period,” OpinYon Laguna’s resident political analyst pointed out.
“Not only does a ‘no-contest’ election rob the people of their right to choose their leaders, such a situation has also robbed many enterprises of the opportunities to cash in on the elections. This, after all, is the season where graphic artists, printing presses, and let’s face it, even online trolls make good money.”
Signs of hope
But for all these bleak signs and symptoms, there are still pockets of good news that can make Lagunenses hope for a better future this 2025.
For one, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the province has emerged as the top provincial contributor to the country's gross domestic product (GDP) among the country’s 82 provinces in 2023.
PSA statisticians had earlier reported that Laguna’s economy expanded by 3.9 percent, rising from P990.44 billion in 2022 to P1.029 trillion last year.
Among the province’s production industries, 15 out of 16 sectors contributed to the economy's growth.
Leading contributors included wholesale and retail trade, which added 0.89 percentage points; financial and insurance activities, with 0.51 points; and real estate and ownership of dwellings, contributing 0.47 points to Laguna's 3.9 percent growth rate.
In per capita terms, Laguna’s GDP contribution was P294,388 in 2023, up 2.5 percent from P287,210 in 2022, and surpassing Calabarzon’s regional average of P182,731.
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