Migration is an expression of the human aspiration for dignity, safety, and a better future. It is part of the social fabric, part of our very make-up as a human family - Ban Ki-moon, a South Korean politician and diplomat who served as the eighth Secretary-General of the United Nations from January 2007 to December 2016.
WITH its "Balik Probinsya program, the national government favors a counter flow in the migration process to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In other words, it seeks to reverse the usual in-migration to Metro Manila to bring about a lasting solution to the spread of the COVID-19 virus.
In the US, news organizations resort to headlines similar to CNN's that says, "Coronavirus Is Making Some People Rethink Where They Want to Live."
This news report describes an exodus from New York for smaller and less dense places.
It cites Governor Andrew Cuomo's declaration: “It’s very simple. It’s about density. It’s about the number of people in a small geographic location allowing that virus to spread. Dense environments are its feeding grounds.”
It is essential to determine whether population density aggravates the COVID-19 pandemic. Many researchers think so. But perhaps surprisingly, they do not have a united view.
The World Health Organization states that outbreaks of disease are more frequent and more severe when the population density is high.
A study by David W. S. Wong, Yun L shows that population density is a useful predictor of cumulative infection cases in the US at the county level.
In a related study, a group headed by Healing Yin, published only last month, found out that the extent and speed of a large outbreak under the same conditions are directly affected by the population density.
This observation dramatically contributes to the government's decision-making on social distancing and travel restrictions when responding to the outbreak.
They clarified the positive correlation between population density and the epidemic infection rate.
However, some believe otherwise. In the 2020 research led by Shima Hamidi, assistant professor of American Health, Johns Hopkins University, the conclusion was that planners and local governments' role in addressing pandemic outbreaks is crucial, but not through advocating for the low density and suburban types of development.
Instead, planners and local governments play a vital role in adopting measures tailored to their community to implement social distancing measures and mitigate the adverse impacts on businesses, households, and citizens.
Another group did a study that observed that high-density cities might offer more opportunities for crowding.
But in Asia, proper public health precautions have spared many megalopolises from the worst.
Even in hard-hit New York City, Manhattan has maintained the lowest COVID-19 rates among the five boroughs, despite having the highest population density.
"It's not about density; what matters is how authorities manage density," says Sameh Wahba,
global director for the World Bank's Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience, and Land Global Practice.
"It is very unlikely that the pull of the city will significantly change," says Chris Webster,
a professor of urban planning and development economics at the University of Hong Kong.
“Cities, economic development, well-being, and cultural enrichment of society go hand-in-hand. People thrive when they cluster together. The greater the number of people living in a town or city, the more and the higher quality the cultural, leisure, healthcare, and other services and experiences”.
Data collected from 284 Chinese cities by The World Bank found that urban density may not be as much of an enemy in the coronavirus fight as initially thought.
Cities with very high population densities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen had far fewer confirmed cases per 10,000 people than cities with lower population densities.
If population density per se is not to be blamed. If it is not the culprit, then why should there be a Balik-Probinsya Program that aims to decongest Metro Manila so the country can end the spread of the virus?
We conclude with this quote:
“Migration powers economic growth, reduces inequalities, and connects diverse societies. Yet it is also a source of political tensions and human tragedies.” - Antonio Guterres, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees from 2005 to 2015.