Consumer expectation in the second and third quarter this year was more positive although the number of those with negative expectations was bigger, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.
According to the respondents, their improved outlook in Q2 2022 was brought about by their expectations of the availability of more jobs and permanent employment; positive developments related to the COVID-19 situation, such as the declining number of COVID-19 cases and the consequent easing of travel and social gathering restrictions; and additional and high income.
The consumer sentiment turned more upbeat for Q3 2022 and the next 12 months as the CIs increased to 11.2 percent (from 6.4 percent) and 32.4 percent (from 30.4 percent), respectively.
Survey respondents attributed their more favorable outlook in the near term to expectations of more available jobs, good governance, positive developments in the COVID-19 situation, and additional and high income.
Consumer outlook improved across the three component indicators and across income groups in the second quarter. These indicators are economic condition of the country, family's financial situation and family income.
Aside from the reasons previously cited for the less pessimistic outlook in Q2 2022, the low-income group anticipated good governance as another reason for their more favorable sentiment in Q2 2022.
Household spending outlook for goods and services for Q3 was less upbeat as the CI declined to 38.3 percent from 40.4 percent in Q1.
Buying sentiment in Q2 2022 is more buoyant, while buying intentions for big-ticket items over the next 12 months remained steady
The percentage of households in the country that considered Q2 2022 as a favorable time to buy big-ticket items increased to 15.2 percent from 12.4 percent in Q1 2022.
Further, the percentage of households in the country that considered the next 12 months as a favorable time to buy big-ticket items remained relatively steady at 6 percent from 5.7 percent in Q1 2022.
The percentage of households with savings though decreased in Q2 to 29.7 percent from 31.1 percent in Q1 2022.
Consumers expect the unemployment rate to decline, interest rates to rise, and the peso to depreciate in Q2 2022, and for Q3 2022 and the next 12 months; Inflation may breach the target range of 2 to 4 percent for 2022
Consumers anticipate that interest rates may increase, the peso may depreciate against the US dollar, and the unemployment rate may decline in Q2 2022, and for Q3 2022 and the next 12 months. Households also expect that the prices of consumer goods and services may rise faster in Q2 2022, and for Q3 2022 and the next 12 months.
This stemmed from concerns over higher household spending for food and utilities, and limited supply of goods and services. Consumers expect the inflation rate to breach the upper end of the government's inflation target range of 2 to 4 percent for 2022 — at 5.7 percent for the next 12 months.
Remittances of overseas Filipino workers were mainly used for food and other household needs, education and medical expenses in Q2. For the given quarter, 97.5 percent of the 322 OFW household respondents indicated that the remittance proceeds would be used for food and household needs, 58.4 percent and 53.4 percent however apportioned this for education and medical expenses, respectively.
In Q2, 24.7 percent availed of a loan in the last 12 months, lower than the 25.8 percent recorded in Q1 2022. For respondents who found it difficult to apply for a loan, some reasons they cited include too many requirements, or difficulty in completing them, lack of collateral, and income is too low to support loan application.
The Q2 2022 CES was conducted during the period 25 April to 5 May 2022. In Q2 2022 CES, 5,437 households were surveyed — 2,716 (50 percent) were from the NCR and 2,721 (50 percent) from AONCR.
Of these households, 5,287 participated in the survey, equivalent to a response rate of 97.2 percent. Respondents consisted of 2,627 households in the NCR (with 96.7 percent response rate) and 2,660 households in AONCR (with 97.8 percent response rate). The middle-income group comprised the largest percentage of respondents (43.9 percent), followed by the high-income group (30.2 percent) and the low-income group (25.9 percent).
Tags: #consumerexpectations, #confidenceindex, #BSP
Photo Caption: Consumer sentiment improved in the second quarter with overall confidence index rising to -5.2 percent from a low of -15.1 percent in the first quarter. The higher confidence index, though negative, indicated that several households are more optimistic but was still fewer than those who are pessimistic, the Bangko Sentral reported.