Think tanks from London and Japan are not comfortable with a possible victory by presidential aspirant Bongbong Marcos since they know nothing about his plans on how to lead the country to recover from the pandemic.
A victory of presidential aspirant Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. would disable the country to recover from the setbacks of the pandemic and that information about him are “far from encouraging,” according to UK think tank Capital Economics.
By contrast, Japan-based Nomura Global Research said incumbent Vice President Maria Leonor Robredo (another presidential aspirant) would be a “market-friendly” candidate given her national experience and her strategy to boost the recovery from the pandemic.
This was bolstered by the endorsement of over 160 economists, including five former socioeconomic planning secretaries for Robredo on her “solid economics and legal background will be “necessary for crafting policies to accelerate economic recovery.”
“In addition, the economists highlighted her proven track record of hands-on leadership and good governance,” Nomura said.
However, Robredo’s main rival Marcos, Jr., is still leading pre-election surveys.
Nomura said frontrunner Marcos is likely benefiting from the popularity of her running mate, presidential daughter and Davao City Mayor Sara Z. Duterte-Caprio, citing latest survey results.
In its weekly brief, Capital Economics said Marcos’ plan for the country’s economic recovery from COVID 19 and information about him are far from encouraging and that if he is elected, “it would only reinforce our view that this under-performance will continue.”
Capital Economics warned of the possible repercussions should Marcos get the highest position in the land.
The former senator is still leading in several surveys.
“It is unlikely the situation will improve under Mr. Marcos and could easily get worse,” economist Alex Holmes said.
The Philippine economy is still struggling to rebound from the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, especially as new COVID-19 variants continue to emerge and as downside risks persist.
Over 200 economists have emphasized the crucial role of the new government in the country’s recovery from the current health and economic crisis. These economists, however, believe that Vice President Leni Robredo, and not Marcos, can do the job well.
Holmes argued that poor governance, an undermining of institutions, a lack of policy-making experience, corruption and nepotism have all contributed to the political instability, which has been a key factor behind the under-performance of the economy over recent decades.
“Presidential candidates in the Philippines do not tend to run on detailed policy platforms, and Marcos is no exception,” Holmes said.
Marcos has dodged several pre-election interviews with other candidates, especially those hosted by seasoned journalists.
London-based think tank Capital Economics said in a report last week the country’s situation is “unlikely to improve” and “could easily get worse” under Marcos’s administration.
It noted that Marcos has refused to participate in traditional pre-election debates. “We know nothing about his plans to help the economy recover from the pandemic, on fiscal policy or how to improve the business environment.”
The group also said Mr. Marcos has a poor legislative track record.
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